Bridgejumpers Go Bust at PHA -- - Trackchampion Handicapping Contests For Horse Bettors

joeya · 09-25-2007, 01:41 PM

Race 6 --

(4) Nerved - accounted for $60,403 of the $64,051 bet into the show pool and finished dead-last in a six-horse field.

Payoffs:

2 Chase for the Gold -- 8.00 3.60 25.80 ... (Odds 3/1)
5 Bailey's Mountain -- 6.00 51.80 ... (Odds 7/1)
1 Tillman's Legacy -- 106.00 ... (Odds 16/1)

cmoore · 09-25-2007, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeya

Race 6 --

(4) Nerved - accounted for $60,403 of the $64,051 bet into the show pool and finished dead-last in a six-horse field.

Payoffs:

2 Chase for the Gold -- 8.00 3.60 25.80 ... (Odds 3/1)
5 Bailey's Mountain -- 6.00 51.80 ... (Odds 7/1)
1 Tillman's Legacy -- 106.00 ... (Odds 16/1)

What a stiff job that was. The 4's last 4 races on the dirt look awesome. All way over par. Then all of a sudden he runs 10 or 20 points below par. Yeah right. What a joke!!!!

joeyknish · 09-25-2007, 01:57 PM

ugh....hate when that happens...unless I was in on it...

tony27 · 09-25-2007, 02:26 PM

I made this wager last night

Wager details for ticket number 17391624-1:

Wager Type: RACEBOOK
Wager Status: Win
Risk / To Win Amount: $20.00 / $ (USD) Accepted 9/25/2007 3:13 AM - EST
Amount Paid: 349.50

Desc: Philadelphia Park race #6 $5 WS 1,2 (#13995534)

thanks 4 horse

joeya · 09-25-2007, 03:03 PM

Would say it was more a case of the horse having serious problems as opposed to a "stiff job" ... but it sure wasn't pretty.

The horse wins three races this year, including a stake at Monmouth.

Tried the turf and was beaten less than four lengths by Red Giant, who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Virginia Derby-G2 before finishing second in the Secretariat-G1 at Arlington.

He then turned in a career-best effort at Belmont for a $75,000 tag (despite stumbling at the start), finishing second to Timber Reserve who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby-G2.

This career-best effort results in a huge drop to the $35,000 level???

He was claimed by a 27% barn that wins 32% off the claim ... but they keep him in the barn for five weeks, work him once and bring him back for $25,000?

Clearly there were issues.

salutetheflag · 09-25-2007, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeya

Race 6 --

(4) Nerved - accounted for $60,403 of the $64,051 bet into the show pool and finished dead-last in a six-horse field.

Payoffs:

2 Chase for the Gold -- 8.00 3.60 25.80 ... (Odds 3/1)
5 Bailey's Mountain -- 6.00 51.80 ... (Odds 7/1)
1 Tillman's Legacy -- 106.00 ... (Odds 16/1)

?? who was that here that said " dont ever bet to show"?

irishnip · 09-25-2007, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by salutetheflag

?? who was that here that said " dont ever bet to show"?

slew??

joeyknish · 09-25-2007, 08:14 PM

big B said that.

***Slew*** · 09-25-2007, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by salutetheflag

?? who was that here that said " dont ever bet to show"?

Betting against a horse with over 90% of the show pool is a different philosophy than standard show betting. I typically don't bother with going for bridgejumper fallout, but if I were to do so I would have bet the five other horses all to show.

cobra · 09-25-2007, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slew

Betting against a horse with over 90% of the show pool is a different philosophy than standard show betting. I typically don't bother with going for bridgejumper fallout, but if I were to do so I would have bet the five other horses all to show.

That is exactly how to play against a horse with over 90% of the show pool.

Breakage · 09-26-2007, 08:31 AM

We need more of these.

The beautiful thing abt racing today,
is if they have the objective form, you can bank on them getting bet regardless of the situation.

THe speed figs made this horse 1/2, the situation made him at least 1/1 to me, probably even higher.

See it all the time now, has to do with the groups and their simulators.

don61111 · 09-26-2007, 09:48 AM

I never pay attention to the show pools but if someone else points it out I always throw a few bucks on at least 2 horses. Even if they hit the board with the chalk you didn't lose anything. Big question was he claimed? 1 work off 5 wks is usually a red flag to claimers. I am guessing no one touched him, but it is Philly.

joeya · 09-26-2007, 10:03 AM

Nope. According to the chart he was not claimed.

Keeneland Ron · 09-26-2007, 10:10 AM

That's what happens when the batteries in your whip go dead. Not surprising at Philly.

Msanislo20 · 09-26-2007, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeya

Would say it was more a case of the horse having serious problems as opposed to a "stiff job" ... but it sure wasn't pretty.

The horse wins three races this year, including a stake at Monmouth.

Tried the turf and was beaten less than four lengths by Red Giant, who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Virginia Derby-G2 before finishing second in the Secretariat-G1 at Arlington.

He then turned in a career-best effort at Belmont for a $75,000 tag (despite stumbling at the start), finishing second to Timber Reserve who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby-G2.

This career-best effort results in a huge drop to the $35,000 level???

He was claimed by a 27% barn that wins 32% off the claim ... but they keep him in the barn for five weeks, work him once and bring him back for $25,000?

Clearly there were issues.

What are the stats for claiming off Contessa then dropping the claimed horse in class? Anybody?

joeya · 09-26-2007, 10:30 PM

Not sure, but anytime I see a horse claimed from a high-profile barn I dig a little deeper, especially if the horse is moving to a "lesser" barn. There is usually a reason why a noted trainer is willing to have a horse claimed away, and in my experience these horses almost always never produce for the lesser barns. They're bargains for a reason!

That said, in this particular case the horse was claimed from Contessa by Steve Klesaris, another high-percentage trainer that does an outstanding job at the claim box. So you couldn't necessarily use the "negative claim" angle here ... but when he showed only one workout in five weeks after the claim and the new barn brought him back for $10,000 less than the claim price that should have sent up the red flags...

...not to mention the negative drop he showed for Contessa before being claimed away.

strawberryroad · 09-26-2007, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmoore

What a stiff job that was. The 4's last 4 races on the dirt look awesome. All way over par. Then all of a sudden he runs 10 or 20 points below par. Yeah right. What a joke!!!!

horse racing isn't a math equation. think about it. if he was running to form (10-15 points above "par") then he WOULDN'T BE RUNNING FOR A TAG

Breakage · 09-27-2007, 07:51 AM

Any 1/2 dropping off the claim is auto fade.

cmoore · 09-27-2007, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by strawberryroad

horse racing isn't a math equation. think about it. if he was running to form (10-15 points above "par") then he WOULDN'T BE RUNNING FOR A TAG

You all seem to have the answers after the race. Typical...

cmoore · 09-27-2007, 01:01 PM

Let me clear things up you after the race has ran experts.
1)Nerve just won a claiming 35k race by 3+ lengths running a late pace of 106
2)He's won 4 of 8 career starts
3)Got claimed in last to a 27% barn
4)21% jockey aboard for this 25k race
5)His last 2 worse races lately were on the turf and in a Grade 3 race from the ten post...Easy to forgive him there.
6)If he wins the 25k claiming race...It's still profitable for the owner if he gets claimed
7)Watch his next race or the one after...I bet he runs..Philly didn't want to pay the negative pool..The fix was on...
8)A stiff job all the way

cmoore · 09-27-2007, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeya

Would say it was more a case of the horse having serious problems as opposed to a "stiff job" ... but it sure wasn't pretty.

The horse wins three races this year, including a stake at Monmouth.

Tried the turf and was beaten less than four lengths by Red Giant, who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Virginia Derby-G2 before finishing second in the Secretariat-G1 at Arlington.

He then turned in a career-best effort at Belmont for a $75,000 tag (despite stumbling at the start), finishing second to Timber Reserve who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby-G2.

This career-best effort results in a huge drop to the $35,000 level???

He was claimed by a 27% barn that wins 32% off the claim ... but they keep him in the barn for five weeks, work him once and bring him back for $25,000?

Clearly there were issues.

Career best was at Calder back in April...Last 4 races on dirt were all pretty close in speed figs.

joeya · 09-27-2007, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmoore

Career best was at Calder back in April...Last 4 races on dirt were all pretty close in speed figs.

Maybe so ... I use Beyers so that CRC race got an 81 and his last three starts on dirt earned 88-94-88. That's why a referred to the race two-back as a "career best" ... probably should have said "career-best Beyer." Some of the other figures may have had it different.

09-25-2007, 01:41 PM	#1 (permalink)
joeya Status: Optional Claimer Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 152	Bridgejumpers Go Bust at PHA -- Race 6 -- (4) Nerved - accounted for $60,403 of the $64,051 bet into the show pool and finished dead-last in a six-horse field. Payoffs: 2 Chase for the Gold -- 8.00 3.60 25.80 ... (Odds 3/1) 5 Bailey's Mountain -- 6.00 51.80 ... (Odds 7/1) 1 Tillman's Legacy -- 106.00 ... (Odds 16/1) __________________ Triple Crown Selections www.triplecrownselections.com

09-25-2007, 01:57 PM	#3 (permalink)
joeyknish Status: Grade II Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: NY/NJ Posts: 1,032	ugh....hate when that happens...unless I was in on it... __________________ Check out the NEW http://www.teamstallion.com 'Putting you in our Circle' 888-388-RACE

09-25-2007, 03:03 PM	#5 (permalink)
joeya Status: Optional Claimer Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 152	Would say it was more a case of the horse having serious problems as opposed to a "stiff job" ... but it sure wasn't pretty. The horse wins three races this year, including a stake at Monmouth. Tried the turf and was beaten less than four lengths by Red Giant, who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Virginia Derby-G2 before finishing second in the Secretariat-G1 at Arlington. He then turned in a career-best effort at Belmont for a $75,000 tag (despite stumbling at the start), finishing second to Timber Reserve who came right back to win the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby-G2. This career-best effort results in a huge drop to the $35,000 level??? He was claimed by a 27% barn that wins 32% off the claim ... but they keep him in the barn for five weeks, work him once and bring him back for $25,000? Clearly there were issues. __________________ Triple Crown Selections www.triplecrownselections.com

09-25-2007, 08:14 PM	#8 (permalink)
joeyknish Status: Grade II Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: NY/NJ Posts: 1,032	big B said that. __________________ Check out the NEW http://www.teamstallion.com 'Putting you in our Circle' 888-388-RACE

09-26-2007, 08:31 AM	#11 (permalink)
Breakage Status: Super Horse Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 5,887	We need more of these. The beautiful thing abt racing today, is if they have the objective form, you can bank on them getting bet regardless of the situation. THe speed figs made this horse 1/2, the situation made him at least 1/1 to me, probably even higher. See it all the time now, has to do with the groups and their simulators. __________________ "An inexhaustible good nature is one of the most precious gifts of heaven, spreading itself like oil over the troubled sea of thought, and keeping the mind smooth and equable in the roughest weather." Washington Irving

09-25-2007, 02:26 PM	#4 (permalink)
tony27 Status: Grade I Join Date: May 2005 Location: new york long island Posts: 2,374	I made this wager last night Wager details for ticket number 17391624-1: Wager Type: RACEBOOK Wager Status: Win Risk / To Win Amount: $20.00 / $ (USD) Accepted 9/25/2007 3:13 AM - EST Amount Paid: 349.50 Desc: Philadelphia Park race #6 $5 WS 1,2 (#13995534) thanks 4 horse

09-26-2007, 09:48 AM	#12 (permalink)
don61111 Status: Grade I Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Illinois Posts: 2,040	I never pay attention to the show pools but if someone else points it out I always throw a few bucks on at least 2 horses. Even if they hit the board with the chalk you didn't lose anything. Big question was he claimed? 1 work off 5 wks is usually a red flag to claimers. I am guessing no one touched him, but it is Philly.

09-26-2007, 10:03 AM	#13 (permalink)
joeya Status: Optional Claimer Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 152	Nope. According to the chart he was not claimed. __________________ Triple Crown Selections www.triplecrownselections.com

09-26-2007, 10:10 AM	#14 (permalink)
Keeneland Ron Status: Grade III Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: unknown Posts: 989	Dead Batteries That's what happens when the batteries in your whip go dead. Not surprising at Philly.

09-26-2007, 10:30 PM	#16 (permalink)
joeya Status: Optional Claimer Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 152	Not sure, but anytime I see a horse claimed from a high-profile barn I dig a little deeper, especially if the horse is moving to a "lesser" barn. There is usually a reason why a noted trainer is willing to have a horse claimed away, and in my experience these horses almost always never produce for the lesser barns. They're bargains for a reason! That said, in this particular case the horse was claimed from Contessa by Steve Klesaris, another high-percentage trainer that does an outstanding job at the claim box. So you couldn't necessarily use the "negative claim" angle here ... but when he showed only one workout in five weeks after the claim and the new barn brought him back for $10,000 less than the claim price that should have sent up the red flags... ...not to mention the negative drop he showed for Contessa before being claimed away. __________________ Triple Crown Selections www.triplecrownselections.com

09-27-2007, 07:51 AM	#18 (permalink)
Breakage Status: Super Horse Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 5,887	Any 1/2 dropping off the claim is auto fade. __________________ "An inexhaustible good nature is one of the most precious gifts of heaven, spreading itself like oil over the troubled sea of thought, and keeping the mind smooth and equable in the roughest weather." Washington Irving

09-27-2007, 01:01 PM	#20 (permalink)
cmoore Status: Grade I Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Norton, Ohio Posts: 2,148	Let me clear things up you after the race has ran experts. 1)Nerve just won a claiming 35k race by 3+ lengths running a late pace of 106 2)He's won 4 of 8 career starts 3)Got claimed in last to a 27% barn 4)21% jockey aboard for this 25k race 5)His last 2 worse races lately were on the turf and in a Grade 3 race from the ten post...Easy to forgive him there. 6)If he wins the 25k claiming race...It's still profitable for the owner if he gets claimed 7)Watch his next race or the one after...I bet he runs..Philly didn't want to pay the negative pool..The fix was on... 8)A stiff job all the way