Big Brown-front wraps

[mountainman]

The reasons to stand against this horse just continue to mount. There was a small item in drf about Dutrow adding front bandages for the Derby. REPORTEDLY, the reason is that the horse has been "running down" just a little. MAYBE. But, then again, if the reason WERE more serious, does anyone really think Dutrow would divulge it? And open himself up to criticism should Big Brown run poorly? Either way, front bandages are NEVER a good thing.

[Ralph the Cat]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Either way, front bandages are NEVER a good thing.

???... Sloppy track... Some people like to protect their investment... Wraps are like putting a band-aid on a tiger... its not going to keep a horse together... Sloppy track, heavy traffic, all reasons for horses to "check" or "get in tight" and hit themselves in the legs with their back legs... but most importantly Big Brown RATING, horses have a tendency to hit themselves when they dont have their head... shorter strides... protecting an investment in a sloppy track... If your a Big Brown fan, IMO I wouldnt let it bother you... not one bit...

[Ralph the Cat]

actually, track isnt too bad...

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Ralph the Cat

???... Sloppy track... Some people like to protect their investment... Wraps are like putting a band-aid on a tiger... its not going to keep a horse together... Sloppy track, heavy traffic, all reasons for horses to "check" or "get in tight" and hit themselves in the legs with their back legs... but most importantly Big Brown RATING, horses have a tendency to hit themselves when they dont have their head... shorter strides... protecting an investment in a sloppy track... If your a Big Brown fan, IMO I wouldnt let it bother you... not one bit...

The announcement was made before they knew how the track would come up. And running down can be a symptom of something more serious. I'd like to see the impact value of horses that run in graded stakes with front wraps, compared to those that don't wear them. It's been my casual observation over the years that classier tracks and quality races have fewer winners wearing front wraps.

[Breakage]

Dutrow adding bandages-although I do not necessarily trust the acuity.

Last 150 cases:

25% winners-losing the track takeout.

But the distribution shows it is bad,
very weighted towards bad effort,

5% running new tops with 40% running significantly worse than the last out.
in all fairness to him the numbers are better with animals coming off a good race,
but of course,

WHO THE HELL IS CHANGING ANYTHING GAME DAY? THAT IS CRAZY TALK!


FWIW adding bandages is one of the worst performing stat catagories for the modern day super trainer at random, the distributions are very similar to the above with a couple of exceptions.

[Ralph the Cat]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The announcement was made before they knew how the track would come up. And running down can be a symptom of something more serious. I'd like to see the impact value of horses that run in graded stakes with front wraps, compared to those that don't wear them. It's been my casual observation over the years that classier tracks and quality races have fewer winners wearing front wraps.

Dont you think Dutrow knew it was going to be sloppy?, We started talking about the weather being sloppy on here on wed.... www.weatherchannel.com


Front wraps are disliked more than liked by trainers...
u would know = Dale never used front wraps, frankly I dont think it had anything to do with expense or what ever, most, if not all trainers have come to see that wraps arent healthy for the horse, vet wraps have a tendency to cut off circulation... I think all trainers avoid using wraps until the horse hits himself or runs down... avoid wraps... IF BB has shown signs of hitting himself last start, morning etc... dutrow may figure stretching out and rating more might cause BB to have a better chance at hitting himself... who knows... but I agree with your assessment of no wraps v.s. wraps... but I can come up with 19 other reasons for BB to lose, wraps not being one... unless they come unwrapped in the race...

[kidc]

330 pm track is drying out and getting faster as I type.

[Ralph the Cat]

Originally Posted by kidc

330 pm track is drying out and getting faster as I type.

I noticed that... Im liken it...

[Breakage]

ROn Hess,


last 10 times adding bandages,
0 for 10 all horses running significantly worse than their previous efforts.


Assmussen only hit 18% with these over the past 200, same as above, twice the liklihood of an effort significantly worse than last out vs a lot of other factors in the database. (BTw losing over 50% on a flat bet on all Assmussen horses bandages on)


Pletcher is the other way-higher win percentage, higher ROI even overcoming the takeout at random, but he is bad with bandages on horses who have run very poorly in their last out.

Baffert the other way, bandages on being a good thing.






I do not come acrosss these numbers that much,
was looking at the LS Derby tomorrow and picked it up.

[Masterquick]

Originally Posted by Breakage

ROn Hess,


last 10 times adding bandages,
0 for 10 all horses running significantly worse than their previous efforts.


Assmussen only hit 18% with these over the past 200, same as above, twice the liklihood of an effort significantly worse than last out vs a lot of other factors in the database. (BTw losing over 50% on a flat bet on all Assmussen horses bandages on)


Pletcher is the other way-higher win percentage, higher ROI even overcoming the takeout at random, but he is bad with bandages on horses who have run very poorly in their last out.

Baffert the other way, bandages on being a good thing.






I do not come acrosss these numbers that much,
was looking at the LS Derby tomorrow and picked it up.

Are these horses stepping up in class ? Or are they dropping in class. Changing surfaces or changing tracks. Stretching out, backing up in distance. Maidens, Alw, Stake. There are a lot of variables to consider other than just adding bandages.

[Breakage]

There are not nearly enough horses with timely enough information to break it down much beyond added bandages or didn't. It does have added bandages after a bad last race,
most trainers have abt 4 in that catagory sample size.

[StormRiver]

I dont know about Big Brown's front bandages, bit I know this much -- my eyes are gonna need front bandages -- extra thick, please -- to keep me from watching the Dutrow connections when (and if) they win the Triple Crown with this horse.

[Slew]

Originally Posted by StormRiver

I dont know about Big Brown's front bandages, bit I know this much -- my eyes are gonna need front bandages -- extra thick, please -- to keep me from watching the Dutrow connections when (and if) they win the Triple Crown with this horse.

I'm growing less convinced by the day they will.

[Ray]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The announcement was made before they knew how the track would come up. And running down can be a symptom of something more serious. I'd like to see the impact value of horses that run in graded stakes with front wraps, compared to those that don't wear them. It's been my casual observation over the years that classier tracks and quality races have fewer winners wearing front wraps.

this used to be true but then again horses would never win form the 20 hole or win with 5 weeks off or win the derby with 4 starts only ...the game is changing so much those "old school rules" have gone out the window.I saw the article thought about and then went and unloaded on BB and cashed nicely.

[Belch One]

Two more horses are now pointing toward the Preakness (Hey Byrn and Icabad Crane); with the front wraps, BB's history of hoof problems, etc. you've got to think that maybe the trainers know something about the horse that the public doesn't.

[Hook]

I am amazed that so many horses are standing in line to tackle BB in the Preakness. Ony one horse from the Derby and a ton of new shooters. You are right, we must be missing something.

[Breakage]

I hope he wins at PIM.

They should be in line for the BELMONT,

a Boundary horse getting 1 1/2,

plus a Dutrow horse trying for three big efforts in a short period of time,

both are unlikely things on face value alone.

[Pick 3 Guru]

Just keep looking for stupid ways to beat this horse (20 post, 3 starts, front wraps, etc.) The only thing that keeps this horse from winning the crown is the 3 races in 5 weeks.

[Breakage]

I consider betting against the #20 post at 2/1 because it is the #20 post at 2/1 pretty smart reasoning.

But I can see how if you love the horse and could care less abt the odds all of this seems stupid.

[Pick 3 Guru]

Originally Posted by Breakage

I consider betting against the #20 post at 2/1 because it is the #20 post at 2/1 pretty smart reasoning.

But I can see how if you love the horse and could care less abt the odds all of this seems stupid.

I didn't bet him from the 20 hole. Not a chance in hell. I keyed him with all the in exacta, and then some tri's with him, but didn't have eight belles on my ticket. I wouldn't touch him at 2/1 either, just when you get back $150 for an easy winner, only to dump $40 to get it, I like those odds. Don't you?

I just think it's funny to see people bash a horse that has won 3 previous starts by 29 lengths, and I'm not one to boast the chalk up either, he just looked by far the best.

[Ray]

Originally Posted by Breakage

I consider betting against the #20 post at 2/1 because it is the #20 post at 2/1 pretty smart reasoning.

But I can see how if you love the horse and could care less abt the odds all of this seems stupid.

normally I wouldnt touch a horse from the 20 hole at 2-1 but when you think a horse is miles best then you actually take the 20 hole cuz if he had say the 10 hole he would have been 6-5 or maybe less I think the 20 hole created value. i know you can get 2-1 anywhere but if the horse should be 6-5 and u get 2-1 you take it. I try real hard not to just throw a horse out cuz of things like post without further reasoning that's closed minded and lazy.

[Breakage]

I obviously disagree,
saw playboy bunnies hopping on the horse during the broadcast,
can't imagine they or others like them had any clue abt the #20 post itself.


I also obviously disagree with the other guy's idea of taking a horse don't like at 2/1 to win but betting him on top of exactas and trifectas to make a 50/1 and considering that a better investment.


But hey that is why we play the game.

[Belch One]

No doubt that he's the most likely winner but if he's around 3/5 or thereabouts at post time you've just got to play at least a few tris with him completely out of it.

[CMW]

Originally Posted by Hook

I am amazed that so many horses are standing in line to tackle BB in the Preakness. Ony one horse from the Derby and a ton of new shooters. You are right, we must be missing something.

Not so amazing to me. I dont understand the logic of ducking 1 horse. When is the next time these horses get a shot at a $1M purse? They still have to run the race and Big Brown still has to finish in front. Thats not guaranteed.

If I had a decent horse, I'd take my shot...

[Hook]

Just read Recapturetheglory is out!

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Ray

this used to be true but then again horses would never win form the 20 hole or win with 5 weeks off or win the derby with 4 starts only ...the game is changing so much those "old school rules" have gone out the window.I saw the article thought about and then went and unloaded on BB and cashed nicely.

The nature of post 20 has changed over time? Say WHAT?

[Ray]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The nature of post 20 has changed over time? Say WHAT?

OH NEVERMIND!!!

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Ray

OH NEVERMIND!!!

Just messing with you man. I understand what you were trying to say. And congrats on your derby score.