Pick 4's

[Valento]

Hey guys...posted this on the CBY website. Just wondering if you're finding the same trends elsewhere regarding pick 4's or if this is isolated to the small/mid size tracks. (Sorry for the long post...no need to read it all...just trying to find out if pick 4's are universally such a good bet).



Pick 4’s: Clearly the best bet at Canterbury Park

“Bet small to win big.” All theories and ideas roll up into that one universal strategy in its simplest form. The pick 4 wager at Canterbury Park is the one bet that truly embodies that strategy.

There have been 90 race dates since opening day 2007. That means there have been 90 pick 4 payoffs. That subset of data has illuminated the attractiveness of the pick 4 wager. No other betting option offered by Canterbury Park, including the pick 6, is as relatively easy to hit for massive payoffs. Quite simply, it’s the best bet at the track!

Some pick 4 facts:
$1,287 = Avg. payoff
20% = Paid on 3 of 4 winners
40% = Paid $1,000+
$5,283 = Largest payoff
51% = Payoff was an IRS ticket ($600+)
80% = Payoff was greater than $1 win parlay on same winners
85% = Paid $100+
50% = 4 winning tickets or less


The amazing thing about the pick 4 is how often low priced runners win while still providing a huge payoff. There have been 25 pick 4’s that have paid $2k or more. An astonishing 68% had at least one winning favorite in the sequence.

When you look at the biggest pick 4 payoff to date, it alone is an example of why the bet is so appealing.
The largest pick 4 payoff ($5,283) came on 7-7-07:
5th race: 12-1 Finalactofdefiance won a turf race as the 5th choice in an 8 horse field (morning line of 10-1)
6th race: 6-5 Sul Lago took down the Victor Meyers as the favorite in a 6 horse field (morning line if 9-5 favorite)
7th race: 5-2 Run With Joy won the F. Genter as the narrow 2nd choice behind 2-1 Thanksforthetip (morning line of 6-1)
8th race: 7-2 Chasm won a small 6 horse turf event as the third choice (morning line of 7-2)

Another good example was on 8-23-07. There was a payoff of $3,407, which is the 4th highest over the past two years.
The winning sequence for 8-23-07 ($3,407 payoff):
5th race: 9-5 Zoombyu won as the favorite in a 6 horse field (morning line of 2-1)
6th race: 7-1 Chestnut Gold won in an evenly contested 5 horse field (morning line of 6-1)
7th race: 7-5 Fancy Gold won her 3rd straight race as the favorite in a 6 horse field (morning line of 3-1)
8th race: 7-2 Queenofthegalaxy won a small 5 horse race as the 3rd choice (morning line of 10-1 before 3 scratches)
It would have cost you $25 to play Fav/all/Fav/all and yet the pick 4 paid 136 times that cost.


When the first leg of the pick 4 is won by a favorite, the payoff averages $833. With the favorite losing the first leg, the average payoff was $1593. However, it’s not all that bad even when the favorite does win the 1st leg. In 25% of the pick 4’s where the favorite won the first leg of the sequence, the payoff was still over $1,000.

Holidays have drawn the largest pick 4 pools with an average of $6,613. Ironically, Thursdays have the 2nd largest pick 4 pool average with $4,964.
1. $6613 = Holidays
2. $4964 = Thursdays
3. $4508 = Saturdays
4. $4232 = Fridays
5. $3638 = Sundays

Having at least one 10-1 shot or greater in the sequence is a sure way to inflate the payoff. It has happened 39 times from the last 90 race dates. The average pick 4 payoff when that happens is $2,200. In 33 of the 39 cases where a 10-1 shot or greater won somewhere in the pick 4 sequence, cashing on the pick 4 required your social security #.

So, how do you use this historical data to help construct a pick 4 ticket? Here is the “Valento” pick 4 guide:
1. Try and beat the favorite in the 1st leg.
(History says this will immediately double your payoff even if you have the second favorite).

2. Have a few long prices in your sequence.
(Obviously, the more you can afford, the better. Search for a few “live longshots” or horses you think will go off at 10-1+ and add them when you can even if you have a strong feeling about lower priced runners).

3. Identify the toughest race and go light on the number of runners you use; spread elsewhere.
(This is completely opposite of what most players do and the few times you are right in the tough race you will have a huge advantage on your competitors by spreading out in other races).

4. Try not to single the “obvious favorite” and do your best to add at least one more horse.
(Most players “gang up” on the big favorite and, thus, a vast majority of the tickets crash and burn when the big favorite disappoints. You can get low prices in the other three legs and still have a large payoff).

5. Don’t be afraid to hit the “all” button when you can afford it.
(I cannot tell you how many times I have eliminated ONE horse from a race and it has beaten me. There are going to be those races where you are dead wrong and it’s ok to cash when your handicapping is off).

6. Have at least one combination that could give you the whole pool.
(You can’t hit a huge one without giving yourself a chance).

7. Focus your handicapping on the pick 4 races.
(Very often, people will start their handicapping in race 1 and work their way down. How often have you found yourself pouring over race 1 or 2 and spending significantly less time later in the card because we can only devote so much time to handicapping? Starting with the pick 4 sequence will allow you to maximize your limited attention span to the most fruitful races).


So far in 2008, there have been 22 pick 4 payoffs and 5 have resulted in no winning tickets. That is almost once a weekend where you can take down the whole pool. A ridiculous 12 of 22 (55%) have had only 2 winning tickets or less. There may not be any other wager at the track that will reward good handicapping so generously with such a small cost to play.

[SaveRockinghamPark]

Very good post. I have noticed the same thing happening at Suffolk Downs. I don't have the stats you posted but I do notice the Pick 4 often paying around $1200 and very often pays on 3 of 4 which I did hit recently. Even though they pay well it is still very tough to hit always the horse overlooked comes out and beats me. Then you go back and look and say damn I should have hit that one it all looks so easy now. I don't hit it very much but to me is the most exciting bet going at the track today.

[irishnip]

for a small play it's the best way to beat the takeout....

[Hook]

My favorite wager at smaller tracks such as Thistledown. 4 second choices will pay significantly higher than the win parlay. Larger pools at bigger tracks negate this advantage. The negative, if you get the entire pool with a 30-1, it will pay significantly less than a win parlay.

[irishnip]

Originally Posted by Hook

My favorite wager at smaller tracks such as Thistledown. 4 second choices will pay significantly higher than the win parlay. Larger pools at bigger tracks negate this advantage. The negative, if you get the entire pool with a 30-1, it will pay significantly less than a win parlay.

in a significantly smaller pool the 30-1 shot becomes significantly smaller in a win parlay....

[Inside The Pylons]

I know this is going to sound harsh, but to anybody with any wagering/handicapping talent, it is a complete waste of time.

You get 4 chances a week to bet a max $150 which = $600 per week. An astronomical hold number would be 40% with obvious huge swings.

If you can do anything near that, you would be much better off betting let's say $300 a race 25 times a week and holding 10% on those with much less volatility.

Talent + churn = profit

Talent + small pool p-4's = time waster

[Valento]

Originally Posted by Inside The Pylons

I know this is going to sound harsh, but to anybody with any wagering/handicapping talent, it is a complete waste of time.

You get 4 chances a week to bet a max $150 which = $600 per week. An astronomical hold number would be 40% with obvious huge swings.

If you can do anything near that, you would be much better off betting let's say $300 a race 25 times a week and holding 10% on those with much less volatility.

Talent + churn = profit

Talent + small pool p-4's = time waster

Huh? English please

[Inside The Pylons]

Originally Posted by Valento

Huh? English please

Focus on small pool p-4's.....I think you are on to something.

[cre8flow]

i am not sure what you mean by a small track

and the average pick 4 payout is $1200??????????????

i am not playing pick 4s to make $1200

to my mind this is a losing strategy

for me the pick 4 is an okay bet but am not sure value is there anymore

you have to be right in 4 races to make a decent score the large majority of the time

plus you are going against a few sharpies who understand the track more than you do

i dont have the betting acumen that ITP has

but the minimum pool i want to bet into is like $32-$40k which is like tampa

and i would do so in order to try and take atleast half the pot down

so i am only playing if i have a 15+-1 twice

[cre8flow]

Valento

i thought about this subject more

the pick 4 pools at cantebury are miniscule-at most $3k.........................


all i can say is mind boggling

[Valento]

Originally Posted by cre8flow

Valento

i thought about this subject more

the pick 4 pools at cantebury are miniscule-at most $3k.........................


all i can say is mind boggling

Understood. But the poiint of the article is the pick 4's pay out much higher then the same win parlays. In short, the pick 4's are overlays at CBY and I was wondering if this held true to the bigger tracks.

[Valento]

Originally Posted by Inside The Pylons

Focus on small pool p-4's.....I think you are on to something.

As opposed to betting into pools in So. Cal or NY where there is a ton of smart money? I will be happy to continue to hit $1500 pick 4's with 2 favorites, a third choice and a 10-1. The same payoff at Hollywood Park would be $225.

[alysheba88]

"When the first leg of the pick 4 is won by a favorite, the payoff averages $833. With the favorite losing the first leg, the average payoff was $1593"

See this as universal issue. Players prefer slow death to quick death. When playing pick 3,4, or 6 the public spends an inordinate amount of time worrying about staying alive after the first race. So will lock on in fav, even if race is wide open.

And then if by chance still alive to last leg of pick 3 or 4 then spend time, energy and even worse money trying to "hedge" off their bet. Afraid to win.

Takes a certain kind of state of mind and skill to play these bets.

Thing I have learned is not to chase them. When opportunity arises can be great bets, but cant be going into every race card looking to play them. Let them find you

[irishnip]

Originally Posted by alysheba88

"When the first leg of the pick 4 is won by a favorite, the payoff averages $833. With the favorite losing the first leg, the average payoff was $1593"

See this as universal issue. Players prefer slow death to quick death. When playing pick 3,4, or 6 the public spends an inordinate amount of time worrying about staying alive after the first race. So will lock on in fav, even if race is wide open.

And then if by chance still alive to last leg of pick 3 or 4 then spend time, energy and even worse money trying to "hedge" off their bet. Afraid to win.

Takes a certain kind of state of mind and skill to play these bets.

Thing I have learned is not to chase them. When opportunity arises can be great bets, but cant be going into every race card looking to play them. Let them find you

what he said....

[swbirdseyeview]

Valento, I occassionally play the pk4 at canterbury but only on very small tickets $12-$24 usually, the problem with canterbury pk4s is what happens if you get a 15-1 with a 8-1 with a 11-1 and than a 3-1, ya you get the whole pool, so maybe $2500, but if it was at a bigger track youd get $8000-$12000, and for that reason, that is why the handle is terrible on the pk4.

[cre8flow]

if 1 more ticket hits the pick 4 making 3 winning tickets

you drop from $1100 to $700

i dont believe its sound advice except possibly for beginners

also you keep going against minnows and you will never get better

[Slew]

Two major problems I have with betting the P4 consistently:

1. It's extremely rare in today's game to find four GOOD races in a row. Most people who play the P4 on a regular basis WILL play bad races they would not normally, just for the sake of the wager.

2. It's much easier to exploit ONE bad favorite and ONE race out of 100 race menu (and make just as much). In a P4 you not only have to beat a weak favorite off the ticket, but then you need to dodge more favorites or short prices in races you are forced to play. You have to be right a lot more, in a confined space.

There are exceptions of course, but I need a lot of things to fall exactly right to make P4 wagers a focal point to my approach.

[cre8flow]

a guy next to me at the track bet a $50 pick 4 cold at churchill on saturday

he hit the thing-more value than the pick 6-

and the breeders cup i do bet them there

[bullring]

Place this wager at Pinnacle.

[cre8flow]

best thing to do is eat some sliced strawberries while handicapping any pick 4

[swbirdseyeview]

Ok Valento, I played your favorite tracks pk 4 tonight on a ticket structured 4x1x4x3 $48 Got a $21 horse in race 5 a $4.20 horse in race 6, a $ 12.40 horse in race 7 and another $4.20 horse in the final leg and the pk4 paid $263.00 for a dollar, $2000 in the pool so there were 6 $1 winning tickets tonight, not exactly a huge payoff for a 10-1 to start the pk4. but about right for the $1 parlay.

[Ralph the Cat]

Originally Posted by swbirdseyeview

Ok Valento, I played your favorite tracks pk 4 tonight on a ticket structured 4x1x4x3 $48 Got a $21 horse in race 5 a $4.20 horse in race 6, a $ 12.40 horse in race 7 and another $4.20 horse in the final leg and the pk4 paid $263.00 for a dollar, $2000 in the pool so there were 6 $1 winning tickets tonight, not exactly a huge payoff for a 10-1 to start the pk4. but about right for the $1 parlay.

I could never get into pick4s to much... tried several tracks... but I started forcing pick4s... never good... like slew said... you end up hating certain legs... I learned to let the bet come to you... if you like 2 or 3 races then go ahead and bring the pick 4 into the mess... but dont play the pick4, just to play the pick 4... just MO...

I've always enjoyed MNRs pick 3s... started playing other tracks pick 4s but ended up realizing MNRs pick3s are the way to go... ex, I bet a $100 pick 3 ticket one night, about a year ago... no joke, dont laugh... 5-1 wins my single... nice 8-1 shot hits the all leg... and a dam favorite hits the 3rd leg in which I had all again... but it still paid $200... maybe $204, $214... something like that... I dont always play $100 p3 tickets... lol... it was just won of those weird feelings I had after watching the early pick 3 pay $600.... rarely does it pay cheap, you can tell nights when its going to pay low... you get $23 payouts some nights when rex wins 3 in a rows on 9/5 shots, but most nights are great... you see payouts over a grand, once a week... you dont need 20-1 shots either, as long as the fav misses in a leg or 2... those nice 5-1 shots make it pay...

Playing MNRs pick3s are a must if you have not ever played... they have an early and late... rather than a crap load like other tracks... nice size pools... for some reason their late pick3 always seems to be the best, probably because of the races you get... I dont mean to bring up, mnr, but ask mnr players, their pick3s are nice... dum money usually plays light tickets... go heavy, and you'll hit nice ones... I usually bet $20-$50...

[Ralph the Cat]

Originally Posted by Ralph the Cat

I could never get into pick4s to much... tried several tracks... but I started forcing pick4s... never good... like slew said... you end up hating certain legs... I learned to let the bet come to you... if you like 2 or 3 races then go ahead and bring the pick 4 into the mess... but dont play the pick4, just to play the pick 4... just MO...

I've always enjoyed MNRs pick 3s... started playing other tracks pick 4s but ended up realizing MNRs pick3s are the way to go... ex, I bet a $100 pick 3 ticket one night, about a year ago... no joke, dont laugh... 5-1 wins my single... nice 8-1 shot hits the all leg... and a dam favorite hits the 3rd leg in which I had all again... but it still paid $200... maybe $204, $214... something like that... I dont always play $100 p3 tickets... lol... it was just won of those weird feelings I had after watching the early pick 3 pay $600.... rarely does it pay cheap, you can tell nights when its going to pay low... you get $23 payouts some nights when rex wins 3 in a rows on 9/5 shots, but most nights are great... you see payouts over a grand, once a week... you dont need 20-1 shots either, as long as the fav misses in a leg or 2... those nice 5-1 shots make it pay...

Playing MNRs pick3s are a must if you have not ever played... they have an early and late... rather than a crap load like other tracks... nice size pools... for some reason their late pick3 always seems to be the best, probably because of the races you get... I dont mean to bring up, mnr, but ask mnr players, their pick3s are nice... dum money usually plays light tickets... go heavy, and you'll hit nice ones... I usually bet $20-$50...

6/14 @ MNR

early pick 3...
odds in each leg
14/1
1/2
2/1
Paid $350.80 with 2 favs...

late pick 3...
6/1
2/1
5/1
Paid $546.00.... had this one with a 3x2x4... only for a buck though... blew $30 or so on the earlier one and didnt catch the first leg of it...

pools between $8-$25k... payout this week was over $100 for every ticket every night... dum money is all I can ever figure... must be Chris Longshots... ... lol, do any good this past week bud?...

[don61111]

By my on line account report the pick 4 shows my best ROI (I use the term return losely). I like p3 and p4. Any more you need to be playing lottery style or in a big ticket group. Inside the pylons mentions $150 tickets. You are nuts to do that too often. You have to pick your amount spent carefully. My usual $1 p4 ticket is from 12 to 50 bucks. I will go more on a good day if I see a chance for big payout. I agree with others who say I have to do the other single race bets more than multi race picks. One and dones at any price are maddening.

[Valento]

Originally Posted by swbirdseyeview

Ok Valento, I played your favorite tracks pk 4 tonight on a ticket structured 4x1x4x3 $48 Got a $21 horse in race 5 a $4.20 horse in race 6, a $ 12.40 horse in race 7 and another $4.20 horse in the final leg and the pk4 paid $263.00 for a dollar, $2000 in the pool so there were 6 $1 winning tickets tonight, not exactly a huge payoff for a 10-1 to start the pk4. but about right for the $1 parlay.

I guess that's what happens when you post information like I did. I know two other people that played it because of what I wrote and they hit it, as well. That means three people hit the pick 4 last night that wouldn't have played it without the information I posted.

Oh well....good hit and good 'capping anyway

[irishnip]

"there's gold in them thar hills"...the canterbury gold rush of 2008....